1. After the decline in sales in 7.8 months, commercial vehicles ushered in an explosive growth in sales in September. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in September, commercial vehicle production reached 336,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.62%, a year-on-year increase of 63.03%, and sales of 316,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.03% and a year-on-year increase of 61.67%. In September, with the exception of semi-trailer production, the chain growth rate was less than 10% month-on-month, and the growth rate of other varieties was more than 10%, indicating that the sales volume in September was significantly higher than that in August; the growth rate of passenger cars was relatively small compared to the same period last year. Low, the growth rate of other varieties exceeds 50%, among which the sales growth of semi-trailer tractors and non-completed vehicles is even more pronounced. In the traditional fourth quarter peak season, commercial vehicle sales are expected to continue to rise, and sales throughout the year are expected to exceed 3 million vehicles.
2. The continuous investment in fixed assets will ensure the demand for heavy trucks, while the recovery of the logistics market will lead to the recovery of sales volume of heavy truck trucks and semitrailer tractors. However, the export market is still difficult to pick up. The sales situation in the domestic market will continue to determine the performance of each model throughout the year. Especially in September heavy truck industry sales rebounded next year, it is expected that the remaining two months, heavy truck sales continue to recover, light truck sales are expected to hit a new high. Light truck sales growth is faster than heavy trucks and gross profit has advantages. Considering the clear growth prospects, the impact on related companies is more positive. Commercial vehicle sales in the next year mainly depends on the sustainability of policies, due to the significant effect of this year's stimulus policies, and a series of car-to-country campaigns. Policies have a pivotal role in promoting auto consumption and enhancing the purchasing power of rural markets. We expect that the preferential policies for the auto industry will continue, and commercial vehicles will continue to be booming, but the year-on-year growth rate will decline.
3. In the truck sub-sector, according to WIND's consistent overdue, from the perspective of valuation, it is relatively optimistic about Foton Motor and JAC. Among the listed companies in the bus industry, the current valuation of Yutong Bus is still lower than the industry average. In the first half of next year, due to the low base this year, it is highly likely that there will be a substantial increase year-on-year. Moreover, as for Foton Motor Vehicles, the gross profit of light trucks is greater than that of medium-heavy trucks. If light trucks continue to sell well, they will have a positive impact on the company's annual results.
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