According to related media reports, alumina manufacturers will continue to control output throughout the year, but the market will still have an oversupply because alumina output may exceed the demand of aluminum refineries.
Alumina is an intermediate material used to produce primary aluminum. The recent recovery of alumina production and the operation of new production capacity will ensure sufficient supply, which will inhibit prices and may even cause prices to fall.
However, some analysts expect that the output of alumina and refinery demand will eventually be flat, and limit the price decline in 2010. "Aluminum oxide prices will not change much from current levels," said Nikhil Shah, an analyst at CRU Group, an industry consultancy. "I don't think prices will fall sharply below $250/260 per ton. There is good support above this level."
James King, an independent consultant, expects the output of smelter-grade alumina will increase from 71.6 million tons this year to 77.65 million tons next year, while refinery consumption will decrease to about 7,520 tons. In the next few years, a large number of new alumina smelting capacities will be put into use, mainly in Brazil, and also in China, Australia and India. According to King's forecast, output will increase by 16 million tons per year by 2013, which means that some idle capacity in the recent declining market may need to be closed for a long time.
Alumina is an intermediate material used to produce primary aluminum. The recent recovery of alumina production and the operation of new production capacity will ensure sufficient supply, which will inhibit prices and may even cause prices to fall.
However, some analysts expect that the output of alumina and refinery demand will eventually be flat, and limit the price decline in 2010. "Aluminum oxide prices will not change much from current levels," said Nikhil Shah, an analyst at CRU Group, an industry consultancy. "I don't think prices will fall sharply below $250/260 per ton. There is good support above this level."
James King, an independent consultant, expects the output of smelter-grade alumina will increase from 71.6 million tons this year to 77.65 million tons next year, while refinery consumption will decrease to about 7,520 tons. In the next few years, a large number of new alumina smelting capacities will be put into use, mainly in Brazil, and also in China, Australia and India. According to King's forecast, output will increase by 16 million tons per year by 2013, which means that some idle capacity in the recent declining market may need to be closed for a long time.
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