May 13 Analysis Report

Under the auspices of Executive Vice President Wang Derong, the Institute of Logistics Research in China completed the May 2013 report on the status of transportation and logistics.

In May, the global economic situation remained grim. The value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.2% year-on-year, and the PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year. The business operations faced difficulties. Exports increased by 1.0% year-on-year, and the increase rate dropped sharply. With the transformation and upgrading of economic structure, China's transportation and logistics industry is also facing an optimized structure. As a whole, the domestic transportation and logistics industry has maintained stable operations. The international shipping industry, dry bulk cargo, container markets, and international oil tankers continue to maintain a weak adjustment pattern.

First, the operation of various modes of transport

(I) Railway

From January to May, the number of railway passengers completed was 84.175 million, a significant increase of 10.5% year-on-year. In May, the number of passengers sent out was 160,670, which was a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. Railway passenger traffic continued to increase. The golden season of tourism is the main factor affecting the high traffic volume of passengers this month. Beijing-Shanghai, Beijing-Guangzhou, Zheng-Xi, and Shanghai-Nanjing passenger lines were opened, and the passenger flow of high-speed railways increased significantly.

From January to May, due to the impact of the macroeconomic situation, the volume of goods shipped was 16,26,620,000 tons, which was a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%. The delivery volume of the package was completed at 3.4 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 35.4%. The decline in rail freight was mainly due to a serious shortage of effective rail supply. In May, the total amount of railway freight shipped nationwide was 321.10 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.0%. From January to May, except for oil, key materials of the railway sector all decreased year-on-year. The main reasons for the continuous decline in railway freight transportation are the impact of the macroeconomic situation, the dual pressures of sluggish foreign trade and insufficient domestic demand, and the decline in demand for bulk cargoes; second, the reorganization of internal railway organizations has also brought about certain effects.

(b) Highways

In May, road transport continued to grow steadily. According to the survey of the subordinate enterprises of the New National Highway Group of a typical road passenger transport enterprise, with the advent of the tourist season, especially the passenger flow of the “May 1st” small holiday road appeared another small peak after the Spring Festival. The passenger traffic of the Group's typical long-distance passenger transport enterprises increased by 7.3% month-on-month and 8.4% year-on-year. Passenger turnover was reduced by 3.0% from the previous quarter and 14.5% year-on-year. The decrease in passenger turnover and the year-on-year ratio was due to the increase in long-distance passenger car operating time between 2 and 5 o'clock in the long-distance buses. In addition to the opening of high-speed trains, some long-distance passengers chose to travel by long-distance bus to other modes of transportation such as railways and aviation.

(III) Shipping

In May, the shipping market did not have obvious peak season features. Weak external demand and excess capacity have also led to a sustained decline in the freight rates of the shipping market. This is the main reason for the current loss of shipping companies.

International dry bulk shipping. From January to May, the average value of BDI index was 820 points, down 7.7% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month. In May, the average value of BDI index was 809 points, down 12.4% year-on-year and 6.3% from the previous month. Commodities are still expected to be weak in the short term. The falling ship type comes mainly from Panamax boats. Exports of soybeans from Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay may increase to a record high of 10.8 million tons. China's soybean import volume is facing a pattern of loosening before the end, which puts extra pressure on the market for Panamax vessels in the latter stage. The Capesize was first low and then high, and the freight rate quickly declined. The weak demand in the domestic downstream market, the steel market is in the doldrums, the willingness of the steel mills to make up the warehouse is low, and the freight rates continue to fluctuate at a low level. Handysize ship market The Indian monsoon season is approaching and iron ore exports have been further reduced, but the market has not significantly declined.

International container transportation. In May, the shipping demand of the container shipping market remained weak, the characteristics of the market peak season were not obvious, and the freight rates of the shipping routes were mixed. North American routes. Although the recent macroeconomic data of the United States is improving, some major shippers’ shipments have decreased due to new capacity investment on the US East Coast routes, as well as the upgrading of capacity and the launch of new vessels. At the same time, the utilization rate of Pacific routes is only about 80%. European routes. Due to the continued weakness of the European economy, the slow recovery of Asian-European transport demand and the price reduction by the liner companies caused the freight rates to continue to fall. On May 31st, the freight rate of Shanghai's exports to the European basic port market was US$598/TEU, and the freight rate of the European Union dropped deeper, hitting a record low since last year. In the Mediterranean route, due to the Ramadan effect, the utilization rate of cabins at the end of the month has recovered to more than 90%; while the new capacity introduced by the Northwest Europe line since the second quarter diluted a limited volume growth, the average loading rate of the market has not risen yet.

International tanker transportation. In May, the international oil transportation market was affected by factors such as the demand for supplies and the changes in supply and demand of shipping capacity. The rates of various types of ships showed mixed trends. Among them, VLCC freight rates oscillated slightly upward, Suezmax continued to slump, and other ship types remained low. As of the end of May, the tanker composite index was 614 points, down 9 points from the beginning of the month. In the international oil product market, the sales of ships decreased, and the freight rates continued to fall. The overall trend showed a downward trend.

(IV) Civil Aviation

From January to April, the overall growth of civil aviation transportation production slowed down and the operation was more difficult. The situation was mixed. China's civil aviation industry completed a total turnover of 20.994 billion tons of transport, an increase of 10.5%. In April, the entire industry completed a total transportation volume of 5.45 billion tons km, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, a passenger turnover of 45.10 billion people and kilometers, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, and passenger transport volume of 28.492 million people, an increase of 9.2%. The volume of cargo and mail traffic was 1.41 billion ton-km, which was a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, and cargo and mail traffic was 461,700 tons, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year. From January to April, China's international cargo traffic volume was flat year-on-year, and cargo and postal traffic decreased by 3.2%. Although the international civil aviation freight situation was sluggish, the decline rate narrowed.

Second, policy recommendations

As soon as possible, establish a supervision system for the transportation and logistics industry and improve the scientific and standardized level of government management.

With the promulgation and implementation of the State Council's decision on the cancellation and decentralization of a number of administrative examination and approval projects, the approval and approval of investment projects such as urban rapid rail transit and airport expansion have been given to local governments in the transportation industry, giving full play to the market allocation of resources. Basic role. In the future, for the transportation and logistics industry projects, it is really necessary to retain the administrative examination and approval matters, simplify the procedures, establish a supervision system for the approval projects, and improve the scientific and standardized level of government management.

Strengthen the coordination and convergence of existing plans, and provide institutional guarantees for the planning of urban logistics facilitation.

The improvement of the efficiency of urban logistics distribution requires a sound and complete infrastructure. At the same time, it requires the orderly connection of facilities and the operation is rational and smooth. At present, the formulation and implementation of various plans are divided into different vertical and horizontal departments. There is a lack of information sharing and mutual coordination mechanisms among departments. The appearance of new forms of business such as e-commerce requires that existing urban infrastructure be adapted to the development of new formats. It is suggested that relevant departments take the initiative to coordinate the matching relationship between the existing transportation infrastructure and logistics business, realize the rational allocation of transportation resources, and avoid unnecessary waste and redundant construction of resources such as land and facilities.