Industrial robots welcome explosive growth

Recently, at an emerging industrial forum held in Shenzhen, industry insiders predicted that the output space of China's six largest manufacturing robots in the next few years will be between 310 billion and 688 billion yuan. Based on the compound growth rate of 25% of Chinese robots, it is estimated that by 2025, the market holding of Chinese industrial robots will reach the current level of developed countries.

In the future, robotic output value exceeds 300 billion yuan

Mobile Internet has changed lives, and many cattle stocks were born in the capital market last year. In 2014, the first year of China's robots has quietly come. There is a huge opportunity in the investment market. It is not groundless.

Relevant statistics show that in 2013, the number of robots owned by 10,000 production workers was 1,710 in Japan, 770 in the United States, and less than 90 in China. In spite of this, the Japanese media recently reported that: "China is moving toward the world's largest robotic country." By 2015, China is expected to exceed the number of newly installed industrial robots in Japan, ranking first in the world."

Last week, at the high industrial production and research emerging industry investment strategy conference held in Shenzhen, the robot as one of the three emerging industries of the forum also attracted the attention of people from all walks of life.

At the forum, Zheng Liyao, deputy director of the China Industrial Research Institute, believed that 2014 was the first year of industrial robotics in China. “Under the dual stimulation of policies and capital, industrial robots will fully enjoy traditional industry transformation in the Chinese market from 2014 onwards. Big dividends from the upgrade."

In general, robots are divided into two categories: "industrial robots" and "special robots." Among them, special robots are industrial robots, and they are used in non-manufacturing industries and serve humans with various advanced robots, mainly military robots and civil robots.

In addition, the robot industry chain is roughly divided into upstream key components, midstream system integration, and downstream applications.

“In the past few months, we have visited more than 70 companies and robots related industries.” Zheng Liyao said, “From the perspective of the industry chain, there is a large gap between the upstream key components and foreign countries. The overall situation is In China, the companies involved in the robotics industry are more likely to be distributed in the middle reaches of the system integrators, with the largest number of companies involved, and the focus will be on about 1,000 related companies.

In the current cost structure of the robot, he pointed out that at the end of 2013, the body's mechanical structure accounted for about 35% of the total, and over 60% of it came from several key components of the servo system, controller, and reducer. “The speed reducer has been monopolized by two Japanese companies, and there will be little change in prices in the future. The cost of the ontology's mechanical structure will decline rapidly over the next year to three years. The trend is obvious, and the cost will account for about 7% of the decline. It will be very intense."

For industrial investment opportunities for robots in China, Zheng Liyao pays more attention to the development prospects of industrial robots in China. "From the analysis of industrial robot market space, we will find that the density of manufacturing robots in the United States, Germany, Japan and South Korea will be found in six major manufacturing industries such as automobiles, electronic and electrical appliances, food and beverages, chemicals, plastics and rubber, and metal products. There are still 1.08 million to 2.4 million industrial robots that account for about 70% of the total demand for industrial robots in China, so the demand for industrial robots is about 1.55 to 3.44 million units, and the output value is 200 million yuan. -Rmb6.88 billion."

"Now Chinese companies are not using a large number of robots. However, it is an inevitable trend to use industrial robots in an all-round way. From the point of view of corporate investment, robots are now purchased with a relatively rapid return on investment. There are five-year payback periods, and we will Buy a robot," said Deng Qiuwei, deputy general manager of Leibo Technologies.

Large space for automotive and electronic manufacturing robots

"From the point of view of market availability, there will be a relatively large increase in robotics from 2013 to 2015. There will be a rapid increase after 20 15 years." Zheng Liyao pointed out that "China's manufacturing industry has 45 million people and robots have a huge Substitution space, projected at a compound growth rate of 25%, is expected to reach the current level of developed countries by 2025.

According to his analysis, from an application perspective, in the next 10 years, automobile manufacturing will still be the most used field for industrial robots and will have the greatest room for growth in the future.

According to relevant data analysis, the demand for auto manufacturing robots in 2013 was 32,000 units, and by 2025, it is expected to reach 358,000 units. In addition, the demand for electronic and electrical appliances, food and medicine, rubber and metal products is also large.

Since last year, Shenyang Xinsong Robot has participated in the construction of a new BMW Brilliance West Tiexi plant, and has successively won numerous bids for projects with a total contract value of more than RMB 100 million. In addition, Southern Reporter noted that a recent announcement by Shenyang Xinsong Robot revealed that it is expected that net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies from January to December 2013 will increase by 20%-40% over the previous year. The reason for the change in performance was, first, the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry, and the urgent need for industrial restructuring to provide a good opportunity for the rapid development of intelligent equipment based on robots.

Deng Qiuwei, deputy general manager of Raytheon Technology, said: "The future of electronic manufacturing industry using robots is certainly the same as the automotive industry, and the number may be used more, the market prospects are even broader."

Relevant data show that in 2013, the electronics and electronics industry used 0.77 million sets of robots. By 2025, it is expected to approach 200,000 sets.

"Currently, it is mainly the development of industrial robots. Civil use is relatively small and it is impossible to reduce costs in the short term." From the perspective of the development prospects of robots, Xu Fang, president of Shenyang Xinsong Robots Academia Sinica, told the reporters from Nandu, "We report from relevant reports. It can be seen that the U.S. has invested heavily in research and development of military robots. The future development of the robotics industry will become a national strategy for China and the United States."

In addition, he analyzed that the data from the “Sixth Census” showed that there were 2.07 million urban households in 2010 and 2.5 million households in 2013. The number of clean robots entering 2.5 million households in urban areas is calculated at 0.3 million to 0.6 million yuan per unit. The market space is 7.5 billion to 15 billion yuan. In addition, medical robots are calculated at 500,000 yuan per unit, and the market space is 6.5 billion yuan. Estimated market space for other robots over 200 billion yuan, the overall total market space is 34 to 41.5 billion yuan.

Policy and capital promote investment opportunities

“The growth of civil service robots is relatively slow, and industrial robots will usher in an explosive growth.” Zheng Liyao believes that “the key components of domestic robots have the fastest growth rate of motion controllers in recent years, and the technical development is more complete. In the coming years, it will maintain an 11% growth rate. The main application industries are textiles, packaging, machine tools, and electronics manufacturing."

In the listed company of the controller market, he pointed out that Cixing shares a leading company for computer knitting machinery and cooperated with Googol to enter the controller field. Xinshida is the largest supplier of elevator control systems in China, and cooperates with Zhongwei Xing to layout controllers.

In addition, the analysis pointed out that in the entire robot industry, the robot machine only accounts for about 1/3 of the market size. The remaining larger market is about 2/3 of software development and system integration, and has a vast market space. For example, Pyramid has relatively mature experience in the application of light weight robots in the electronics manufacturing industry, and its industrial market space is in the range of 38 to 203 billion yuan. "The next three years will be a big reshuffle for the Chinese robotic systems integration industry."

Deng Qiuwei, deputy general manager of Raytheon Technology, said: “With the increase in labor costs, the payback period for companies investing in robots will be shortened. The investigation shows that fewer and fewer employees are willing to do repetitive work for grassroots employees. If you grow up after 00, your company may not be able to find employees who do repetitive tasks. This will no longer be a problem of wages, but rather a problem in which companies must use robots."

"In the future, the key to determining the investment targets and time points for the robotics industry is to look at the layout and timing of multinational robot companies. In the past year, multinational corporations are accelerating the transfer to the Chinese market; they are not merely setting up sales companies in China. More is to transfer key manufacturing links to China. In addition, mergers and acquisitions cooperations with listed companies are also being conducted. Zheng Liyao analyzed that. "In the capital market, industrial robots are stimulated by both policy and capital. A few waves have been born last year. From the whole of 2014, investors are facing the dividends brought about by the transformation and upgrading of China's traditional markets. We found through investigation that many places The industrial park is facing the pressure of transformation and upgrading.Local government investment chambers are under greater pressure.At the end of last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the “Guidance Opinion on Promoting the Development of Industrial Robot Industry”, which can focus on the transformation and upgrading of robotic equipment manufacturing that local governments will launch in the first half of the year. The policy is good news."