Beijing December 23rd came to a conclusion at the end of the year, "advanced assessment" should be the main theme, but in the face of 2003 China's auto market, the lingering feeling is "imminent" - the inevitable state of the market in a major transition period.
Looking back at the Chinese automotive industry in 2003, the three "key words" were sufficient to support one-year glory.
As soon as the production is completed: The annual automobile production is expected to reach 4.2 million, of which the sedan will exceed 2 million. After last year's growth in automotive blowouts, it was able to grow by 30% to 40%. This is a unique trend in the background of almost stagnant production and sales growth of the global automotive industry.
Second contribution: This year, half of China's industrial growth comes from the four industries of the automotive industry, electronics, metallurgy, and machinery. The auto industry's monopoly, coupled with related and extension industries, has affected GDP growth by almost one percentage point.
San Francisco's marketization: The automobile industry has entered the competitive field from the model of the planned economy in the past. Although projects and product approvals are still strictly controlled by the government, production, prices, sales, and services have entered fierce market competition, and the consumption structure of cars has been realized. Private consumption is the mainstay, and the country has begun to gradually remove the weight of single bus consumption.
However, with the integration of globalization and marketization in the automotive industry, especially in the context of China’s accession to the WTO and the full entry of the world’s automotive multinational corporations, it is facing great shocks and transformations, and the “imminent†atmosphere is inevitable:
price. The five-year protection period for China's automobile industry brought by negotiations on accession to the WTO is actually a gradual reduction of tariffs, and the deadline for domestic cars to face imported vehicles will be postponed until 2006. Looking forward to lowering the price of cars, it is the wish of ordinary Chinese people to get in line with international standards. However, apart from a few companies with a long-term vision, most Chinese car companies do not have a timetable for price reductions. Some foreign investors in joint ventures that have an advantage in the Chinese auto market still want to rely on market share to maintain their high prices and high profits. Some new models introduced into China use the Chinese people's unfamiliarity with the international auto market, and tofu sells meat prices. . When the economic car market appears to be in a situation where supply exceeds demand, some manufacturers will turn their backs on price cuts and fight price wars. Some models, three times a year price cuts, have seriously hurt the interests of the first-time car buyers, but also lost the confidence of potential car buyers, resulting in a backlog of economic cars during the year in the 60,000 to 80,000. In the high-end car market, depending on the consumption of public funds and malformed consumption, the vehicle price remains high, and even 12 million yuan is competing to buy a world-class anomaly of imported luxury cars.
energy. In the past 20 years, China has doubled its energy consumption by doubling its energy consumption, creating a world miracle of energy consumption elasticity coefficient of 0.5. This miracle will hardly be maintained in the next 20 years after the popularization of consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances. China has become a pure energy importer and the energy situation is not optimistic. Developed countries are actively developing energy-saving cars and new energy vehicles; they are vigorously promoting 1.3 liters of engines and even 0.8 liters of small-displacement cars. China’s sedan has 1.6 liters of “gold displacementâ€; 2.0 rose to 2.4 liters because it is the official car purchase limit, but the best-selling car. To this day, the relevant management departments do not have a preferential incentive policy for small-displacement cars; some city managers foolishly restrict the operation of small-displacement cars; manufacturers intentionally or unintentionally mislead the public with “large displacement equivalent to strong driving forceâ€; car buyers The introduction of large-displacement cars as a “faceless†fashion is incompatible with the national policy of sustainable energy development and runs counter to the technological development and concept of the global automotive industry. As people advocate the protection of wild animals, we prefer to promote fur clothing.
Congestion. The entry of cars into the family is a historic social progress. However, with the gradual popularization of private cars, some large cities have been trapped in traffic congestion that is difficult to resolve, and congestion is becoming a constraint factor for the development of the Chinese automobile industry in the coming years. In a sense, congestion is a kind of punishment for dealing with the economic laws in previous years, ignoring the necessity for cars to enter the people's consumption, and dealing with the lack of measures in urban planning, traffic management, roads, and parking lots. In the face of congestion, restrictions on private cars are neither feasible nor popular; on the contrary, every rumor of “limited cars†and “high fees†will stimulate a new round of car climaxes and further aggravate congestion. The development of public transport, especially rail transit, has become the consensus of people to attract the public as the first choice for travel. It is still a matter of time before the construction of public transportation, and starting from the quality of motorists and advocating civilized driving for law-abiding and courteous behavior, I am afraid that this should be the top priority in managing congestion. Perhaps the speed at which the car enters the family is too rapid. Perhaps the Chinese people give the car as a symbol of travel and other than the means of travel, leaving many people lacking peace of mind when buying a car and driving. It is not uncommon for us to drive and scramble and then fight. To make up for the lesson of car civilization is more effective in solving traffic jams.
Brand. Self-development ability is still the bottleneck of establishing an independent brand. With the opening of the market, major automakers in the world have come to China for joint ventures. On the one hand, the level of technology and management of the Chinese auto industry has been increasing; on the one hand, saloon products have become almost universally dominated by foreign brands. In 2003, more than 50 new models were introduced, from micro-cars to luxury cars, covering almost all types of vehicles ranging from 50,000 to more than 500,000 yuan. Most of them are foreign brands. Most of these new vehicles were quickly brought to market through KD (part-assembly) methods. Foreign investment was low, but they brought "profits" for selling KD parts. Although the country proposes that its own brands will account for 50% of China's autos by 2020, no incentives will be seen; a few independent brands will survive under the pressure of imported brands. It is also inspiring that, in terms of absolute output, China was already the third and fourth largest automobile producer in 2003. Exciting for the people, but the practice of the world's auto production rankings are based on the brand (VW to Germany, GM to the United States, Toyota to Japan), China's ranking is only outside the 10 countries in the "other".
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