The problem behind the expansion of the LED industry

Recently, LED industry has experienced a substantial expansion of its production. From upstream chips, midstream packaging to downstream applications, all companies are full of confidence and ambitious. Behind it is the decline in the price of LED lighting products brought about by cost reduction, which has led to the outbreak of market demand. The rapid growth in the next few years is expected. At the same time, the generous subsidies have also triggered the rapid expansion of enterprises. However, after the glory, will it be another industry decline.

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LED ushered in the big market year this year is definitely the big market year for the LED industry! A senior executive of a LED listed company in Guangdong told the Shanghai Securities Journal at the beginning of the year that the same optimism was also spread by many LED listed companies visited by reporters at the beginning of the year. It not only originated from the overall prosperity of the LED industry in 2013, but also from the industry. The confidence to replace traditional lighting products.
The data shows that compared with the overall decline in the industry's profits in 2012, the LED industry is beginning to usher in a boom in 2013. Most listed companies that have published annual reports have achieved positive earnings growth.
The rising demand for the whole industry in 2013 is the direct cause of everyone's profitability. We judge that this demand increase will be sustainable in the next few years, and the growth rate will be very fast, and the root cause of this confidence is LED. The cost-effective advantage brought by the decline in product prices has completely replaced traditional lighting products. The aforementioned corporate executives told reporters.
A first-line salesperson of a certain LED company also told reporters that in 2011 and 2012, every time they participated in a large-scale exhibition to introduce the energy-saving and various advantages of LED lights to customers, the customers showed great interest, but when it comes to The price, the customer shook his head.
At that time, 5W LED lights were sold to 60 or 80 pieces, but the energy-saving lamps of the same brightness were only about 20 pieces. However, since 2013, the price of indoor LED products has dropped sharply, and now 5W LED lights have also been reduced to 20 pieces. The price of outdoor street lights has not fallen as much as indoors, but has fallen to the same level as high-pressure sodium lamps. Therefore, we have added a lot of civilian and commercial customers in recent days. The salesperson said.
In this phenomenon, a brokerage analyst pointed out that this is mainly because the price of upstream chips will drop at a rate of about 30 per year. By the second half of 2013, it will begin to be transmitted to downstream end products, and the overall cost reduction trend of the whole industry will continue. . Therefore, the LED industry has actually entered the stage of comprehensive replacement of traditional lighting products.
The decline in product prices directly led to an increase in demand. According to the forecast of Xiangcai Securities, the LED lighting market is expected to double in 2014 to more than 250 billion yuan. In 2015, it will double again to 500 billion. UBS Securities predicts that the lighting market will increase from 2013 to 2015. The speed of the residential LED lighting market is 157, 90 and 62 respectively. Qilu Securities also predicts that the compound growth rate of LED lighting demand will reach 30 to 40 within 3 to 5 years. The rate will increase from 10 to 15 to 40 to 50.
Huge subsidies have helped the industry scale to regain the favor of the LED industry in the capital market. It is also the aura of the national strategic emerging industry, which brings more real benefits to related companies: in addition to various tax deductions and policy awards In addition, local governments have introduced a huge subsidy policy for the LED project, which is considered by the industry to be another major driving force for the expansion of production capacity.
A foreign investment bank analyst told reporters that in the core electronic components high-end general-purpose chip major projects, central financial funds, 863 plan and other central-level special funds and awards list, LED companies frequently listed; and other places The government also gave enterprises huge equipment purchase subsidies as a condition for investment promotion.
In 2009, the Yangzhou Municipal Government took the lead in introducing a subsidy policy. Each time a company introduces a MOCVD machine (LED chip production equipment), it will provide a financial subsidy of 10 million yuan. In Hangzhou, the company purchases MOCVD equipment for 40% of the purchase price.
According to public information, from 2010 to 2012, Dehao Runda's wholly-owned subsidiaries Wuhu Dehao, Yangzhou Dehao, Dalian Dehao, and Hao Dehao received three subsidies of 418 million, 25.746 million, 76.6 million and 7580 respectively. Million. In the past three years, Sanan Optoelectronics has received nearly 3 billion yuan of government subsidies. The huge government subsidies accounted for a large part of the net profit of listed companies. From 2010 to 2013, Sanan Optoelectronics received net subsidies respectively. Profits of 60, 86, 60, 45.7. In the case of Anxi Project, in order to strive for Sanan Optoelectronics to enter, Fujian Anxi County invested 4 billion yuan to subsidize MOCVD and sapphire substrate production equipment, totaling 2.2 billion yuan. In terms of land acquisition, infrastructure and R&D center, the construction investment will be 1 billion yuan, and the supporting construction project will invest 800 million yuan. In the Xiamen billion project launched by Sanan Optoelectronics in April this year, the Xiamen Municipal Government will purchase subsidies for 200 MOCVD equipment newly added by Sanan Optoelectronics. For each 5 million yuan calculation, the direct subsidy will reach 1 billion. .
Large expansion brings out overcapacity. Government subsidies can be said to play a role as catalysts and expansion agents in the process of expanding production capacity. In the case of Sanan Optoelectronics, Xiamen’s 10 billion project was originally planned to be implemented in Wuhu. There is no plan to buy so many equipment, and the total investment is only more than 4 billion. When Xiamen’s subsidy policy came out, the equipment purchased by Sanan Optoelectronics increased to 200 units, and the total investment has more than doubled. The aforementioned brokerage analyst said.
In fact, after several rounds of capacity expansion, only the upstream LED chips, the total capacity of domestic enterprises has accounted for more than 60% of the world. According to the above-mentioned LED listed company executives, there are currently about 1,500 MOCVD devices for global production of chips, and the number of devices currently owned by domestic companies is about 900. If the 300 MOCVD equipments of Sanan Optoelectronics are all produced, the total amount of equipment owned by the company will reach 350, which will exceed the number of Jingyuan Optoelectronics (244 units), Samsung (182 units) and LG (160 units). Rise to the first.
In this regard, an industry analyst who has long been concerned about government subsidies reminded that concerns about overcapacity in the LED industry began to exist at the end of 2011, but the release of demand in the past two years completely reversed this situation. From the current industry development speed, it may be too early to say that the LED industry overcapacity, but if the future demand growth rate is slower than the capacity expansion rate, the entire industry will begin to appear oversupply, trigger price wars and lead to industry reshuffle and other extreme phenomena. . Dairy farming subsidies and pig breeding subsidies implemented in earlier years are a good reference.

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