The gradual realization of domestic domestic auto parts industry is a definitive trend in the entire industry. At the same time, the potential for outbreaks of demand in the mid-term, such as TPMS, exhaust gas treatment, and automatic transmission, can be properly addressed.
One, TPMS
The tire pressure monitoring system, together with airbags and ABS, constitutes three major safety systems for automobiles, which can effectively reduce the risk of car punctures. Since the introduction of the TPMS in the 1990s, TPMS has gradually penetrated downwards from high-end models, but at present domestic low-end vehicle models are assembled. The rate is still low. After the “Performance Requirements and Test Methods for Passenger Vehicle Tire Pressure Monitoring System†(GB26149) is passed, all newly certified passenger vehicles will be on January 1st, 2019 and all on-board passenger vehicles will be mandatory as of January 1, 2020. Install TPMS. With reference to the experience of the United States, the European Union and other regions, mandatory installation policies may bring the outbreak of domestic TPMS demand. Wantong Intelligent Control expects that the 2020 TPMS's new car assembly rate will quickly rise from 20% in 2015 to over 60%, and the market demand will increase from 18.9274 million in 2015 to more than 100 million.
Percentage of TPMS in various models of domestic market assembly (%)
Source: Public data collation
China TPMS Assembly Rate Forecast (%)
Source: Public data collation
Related report: Report on the status and future development trend of China's auto parts industry competition for 2017-2022 issued by Zhiyan Consultancy Network
Second, tail gas treatment
According to regulations, the implementation scope of the National Five Standard will be extended to heavy-duty diesel vehicles from July 2017 and will be extended to light-duty diesel vehicles from next year. Compared with the National IV standard, the emission limits of pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, non-methane hydrocarbons, particulate matter, etc. from the five countries on diesel vehicles have been reduced from 0.25 g/km, 0.3 g/km, and 0.025 g/km to 0.18 g/km respectively. Km, 0.23g/km, 0.0045g/km. In the past, diesel engines improved pollution emission reduction through the enhancement of technologies such as supercharged intercooling, multi-valve technology, exhaust gas recirculation and cooling, and electronically controlled high-pressure injection systems. However, as emission standards increase, exhaust gas aftertreatment technologies are used to meet standards. Related products Demand will increase. Taking DPF (particle trap) as an example, the filtration efficiency of particulate matter in exhaust gas by the direct flow DPF and wall-flow DPF can reach 40%-60% and 80%-90%, respectively, and will be widely used after the implementation of the National Sixth Standard. However, due to the increase in environmental protection requirements, the installation of DPF on the basis of State V has been implemented in some regions, and Beijing (2016), Shenzhen (2017), Tianjin (2017) and other places have requested the installation of DPF on heavy-duty diesel or diesel vehicles. The rest of the region is also expected to follow up.
Third, automatic transmission
The penetration rate of automatic transmissions in the passenger car market continues to increase. It is estimated that from 2007 to 2015, the ratio of automatic transmissions to sales of domestically produced passenger vehicles rose from 31.0% to 43.2%, and that of manual transmissions dropped from 69.0% to 56.8%. The proportion of automatic transmissions will continue to rise in the future. At present, there is a capacity gap in the country for automatic transmissions. Major OEMs including the Volkswagen, SAIC, and Great Wall, as well as major transmission manufacturers such as ZF, GETRAG, and Jieteke, all expand their production in China, and they are upstream. Demand for gear parts products creates a significant pull.
Domestic manufacture of passenger cars, manual transmission, automatic transmission ratio (%)
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