Propylene is one of the most significant petrochemical feedstocks, following ethylene. In 2004, China’s downstream propylene derivatives consumed approximately 6.346 million tons of propylene. Among these, polypropylene was the largest consumer, accounting for about 74.9% of total propylene usage. Acrylonitrile ranked second, contributing roughly 10.1% to the overall demand, while propylene oxide took up around 5.9%, and octanol accounted for approximately 6.3%. Other chemical products made up the remaining 2.8%.
Looking ahead, polypropylene is expected to maintain its position as the primary derivative of propylene, with its share likely to grow further. To meet the rising demand for acrylic fibers and ABS resins, China plans to expand acrylonitrile production capacity, which will sustain a high proportion of propylene consumption. Additionally, as the demand for polyethers and phenols increases, the need for propylene oxide and acetone is expected to rise at a slightly faster rate than other derivatives, leading to an increasing share in propylene usage.
From 2005 to 2010, the annual average growth rate of propylene production capacity in China reached 5.7%. By 2010, ethylene-based propylene production capacity was expected to reach 7.22 million tons per year, with the total propylene production capacity reaching 10.8 million tons annually. The proportion of propylene supplied by ethylene units would continue to increase. However, demand from downstream industries also grew steadily, with the apparent consumption of propylene expected to rise by an average of 5.8% annually during this period. In 2005, apparent consumption stood at around 7.92 million tons, rising to 10.49 million tons by 2010. Meanwhile, equivalent propylene demand was projected to grow at an average of 7.6% per year, reaching 19.05 million tons by 2010. This led to a supply-demand gap of approximately 8.25 million tons, highlighting a critical imbalance in the market.
To address this challenge, experts proposed six key strategies. First, China should shift from a traditional "ethylene-centric" model to a more balanced "propylene-centric" approach, adjusting the production structure of ethylene and propylene. This would involve modernizing existing facilities and gradually establishing a dual system where both ethylene and propylene centers coexist, meeting the growing needs of both markets. Increasing propylene output through ethylene plants and improving the quality of polypropylene products would also be essential.
Second, the self-sufficient supply model should be reformed to allow propylene to be fully integrated into the market. Refineries should focus on boosting propylene production and optimizing resource utilization. Adjusting refinery structures to include both short-process and deep-processing units could enhance propylene concentration and promote technological development in this area. Continued research and improvement of refinery-based propylene technologies are also necessary.
Third, upgrading fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) units offers a low-investment, efficient way to increase propylene output. Sinopec’s DCC process, which is globally competitive, should be further developed to play a larger role in China’s propylene industry. However, propane dehydrogenation, though exclusive to propylene, faces challenges due to limited propane availability, especially in wet gas fields with high propane content, making it less viable at present.
Fourth, the olefin disproportionation process, although consuming ethylene, shows strong potential when propylene prices exceed those of ethylene. With existing industrial facilities abroad, this technology has great development potential in China.
Fifth, the C4/C5 hydrocarbon selective cracking process stands out for its cost-effectiveness. Chinese institutes, such as the Shanghai Petrochemical Research Institute, have developed proprietary technology in this area, and efforts should be accelerated to achieve commercialization.
Lastly, with the rapid growth of the methanol industry in China, leveraging abundant methanol resources to produce propylene can improve economic efficiency and ease the pressure on propylene supply. Focusing on methanol-to-propylene technology is therefore a promising direction for future development.
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