Propylene is a key petrochemical feedstock, following ethylene in importance. In 2004, China's downstream propylene derivatives consumed approximately 6.346 million tons of propylene. Among these, polypropylene was the largest consumer, accounting for about 74.9% of total consumption. Acrylonitrile ranked second, contributing around 10.1%, followed by propylene oxide at 5.9%, octanol at 6.3%, and other chemical products making up the remaining 2.8%.
Looking ahead, polypropylene is expected to remain the primary derivative of propylene, with its share of overall consumption likely to grow further. To meet the rising demand for acrylic fiber and ABS, China will continue expanding its acrylonitrile production capacity, which will maintain a high proportion of propylene usage. Additionally, as demand for polyethers and phenols increases, the demand for propylene oxide and acetone is projected to rise slightly faster than other derivatives, leading to an increasing share of propylene consumption.
From 2005 to 2010, the annual average growth rate of propylene production capacity in China reached 5.7%. By 2010, ethylene-based propylene production capacity was estimated to reach 7.22 million tons per year, while total propylene production capacity would reach 10.8 million tons annually. The proportion of propylene supplied by ethylene units is expected to increase further.
Meanwhile, demand from downstream industries also grew steadily. The apparent consumption of propylene in China rose at an average annual rate of 5.8% during this period, reaching 7.92 million tons in 2005 and projected to reach 10.49 million tons in 2010. The equivalent demand for propylene, including both direct and indirect uses, was expected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.6%, reaching 19.05 million tons by 2010. As a result, the supply-demand gap for propylene was anticipated to reach 8.25 million tons in 2010, highlighting a significant imbalance in the market.
To address this challenge, experts proposed six key strategies:
First, China should shift from the traditional "ethylene-centric" model to a more balanced "propylene-centric" approach. This involves adjusting the production structure of ethylene and propylene, introducing new technologies, and reconstructing existing facilities to better match market demands. Over time, a dual system of "ethylene center" and "propylene center" could be developed to meet the needs of both products simultaneously.
Second, the self-sufficient market should be reformed to allow propylene to be fully commercialized. Refineries should be encouraged to increase propylene output and optimize resource utilization. A diversified refinery structure—combining short-process, shallow-processing units with long-process, deep-processing ones—could help boost propylene production and improve efficiency.
Third, upgrading FCC units for propylene production is a low-investment, high-efficiency option. The DCC process developed by Sinopec’s Petrochemical Research Institute is globally competitive and should be further improved and promoted in China. However, propane dehydrogenation, though exclusive to propylene, faces limitations due to the scarcity of propane resources in China.
Fourth, the olefin disproportionation process, although requiring ethylene, is promising when propylene prices exceed ethylene prices. With successful industrial applications abroad, this method holds great potential for development in China.
Fifth, the C4/C5 hydrocarbon selective cracking process is the most cost-effective among current propylene production methods. Chinese research institutes, such as the Shanghai Petrochemical Research Institute, have developed proprietary technology in this area, and efforts should be accelerated to achieve industrial application.
Lastly, with the rapid growth of the methanol industry in China, the country should explore ways to produce propylene from methanol. This not only improves the economic efficiency of methanol plants but also helps alleviate the propylene supply shortage.
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