Guotai Junan expects that the LED industry will benefit from the lighting market, which is welcoming the best situation in history, and has entered a long period of three years of high prosperity; while mainland enterprises will benefit from the comprehensive advantages of technology, cost and support, they will enjoy the global LED manufacturing chain transfer premium. . Since last year, the LED industry boom has begun to pick up. A few years ago, the price of 5W LED lamps was 3-4 times that of the same brightness energy-saving lamps. However, in recent years, the price of upstream chips has dropped at a rate of about 30 per year, and the cost has dropped. The price of terminal products is basically the same as that of energy-saving lamps, and the LED industry is expected to enter a stage of comprehensive replacement of traditional lighting products. Guotai Junan expects that the LED industry will benefit from the lighting market, which is welcoming the best situation in history, and has entered a long period of three years of high prosperity; while mainland enterprises will benefit from the comprehensive advantages of technology, cost and support, they will enjoy the global LED manufacturing chain transfer premium. . The pattern of supply and demand has entered the best of history. 1) Guotai Junan estimates that the industry supply/demand ratio is only 1.04 (1.1 is the safe water level) in 2014, close to the highest historical level of the industry in 2010; 2) significant contraction at the supply end: CSA statistics, the total number of domestic MOCVD at the end of 2013 was 1090 units, compared with 2012 Only about 110 units were added each year; far below the growth rate of the industry and the growth of downstream application demand. With the substantial derivation of subsidies, the future expansion will be more rational; 3) The demand side is rapidly increasing: The LED lighting market has entered the high-speed growth range of penetration rate 15. Taking leading enterprises as an example, the growth of new orders in 2014 will reach More than 2 times, the average growth rate of the industry can also be turned over; with the launch of the LED lighting cycle, it is expected that this round will continue for a long time. Profitability is expected to increase: upstream is expected to increase structural prices, and downstream price declines will narrow. 1) Industry chain research shows that from the end of 2013 to the end of May 2014, the price of chips has dropped by less than 3, far better than the market expectation of 10, and it is expected that the future will have a structural price increase in the future; in the medium and long term, with the mainstream of the epitaxial film The size of the switch to 4 inches, chip size reduction and continuous improvement of light efficiency, chip profitability is expected to continue to optimize. 2) After the downstream application products actively cut the price and seek the market process, they have fallen to the price of energy-saving lamps, and the subsequent price reduction space is limited. According to the survey, 3W LED lamps have fallen by 33 to 2.9 dollars in the past year, only 1.5 times that of the same energy-saving lamps; while domestic cost-effective products are close to the price of energy-saving lamps; in the medium and long term, with the increase in intelligence and dimming ratio, applications End value added is expected to increase. Ping An Securities believes that in 2014, LEDs will run through the whole year. Under the background of high-volume lighting and rapid demand growth, many enterprises will usher in a double turning point in revenue and profit margin. Judging from the situation of industrial chain research, many LED companies have the demand for mergers and acquisitions and refinancing this year. Since the profit base of second- and third-line LED companies is generally not high, the corresponding performance elasticity is very large. Judging from the stock price increase in the year-to-date, the industry leaders led by Sanan Optoelectronics and Sunshine Lighting in the A-shares have lagged significantly. In the context of the increasing competitiveness of Chinese enterprises, the broad market for domestic demand, and the bright future, Ping An believes that the market underestimates the flexibility of this round of LED home lighting penetration to the overall industry. LED general lighting demand will have a deterministic explosive growth, and MOCVD machines are no longer able to repeat the previous high investment and high growth, LED chip supply and demand situation is constantly improving. Ping An judged that the price decline of the chip this year is also about a dozen points, and there may be structural shortages in the second quarter. Analysts continue to strongly recommend Sanan Optoelectronics, the company's leading position in the chip industry is consolidated, and wide-bandgap semiconductors are ready to go, with bright prospects. In the middle of the package, it is recommended to pay attention to the beneficiaries of industry integration, and continue to recommend Jufei Optoelectronics, which has the most outstanding management capabilities. On the downstream side, Foshan Lighting, which has obvious advantages in channel recommendation, has benefited from the improvement of the industry's prosperity and actively deployed its own channels of sunlight.
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