The domestic refined oil price "triple down" has been a virtual certainty.
Since the last round of product oil price adjustment, today (July 10) is the 22nd working day. As the three-land (Dubai, Brent, Xinta) crude oil movement average price change rate (hereinafter referred to as the "three-land change rate") has already fallen below -4% and has been maintained so far, it means that the refined oil price adjustment window will be tonight. Ironing is open, price adjustment may reach 400 yuan / ton.
This will also be the third consecutive reduction in refined oil prices this year.
Development and Reform Commission for the first time notice price cuts
According to another CCTV report, Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the Development and Reform Commission's Price Division, said yesterday that the conditions for oil price cuts have been met. At the same time, the price adjustment window will be opened on July 11 and oil prices will be lowered.
The officials of the Price Division of the National Development and Reform Commission have publicly clarified the time for price adjustment of refined oil products. This is the first time in recent years.
According to the data provided by the Xinhua News Agency’s oil price system yesterday, as of July 6th, the rate of change in the three places was -9.25%. Zhuochuang information data shows that the rate of change in the three regions was -8.96%, which was a 0.06% decrease from the previous working day, and the weighted average moving price for 22 working days was 97.56 USD/barrel.
According to the current "Petroleum Prices Management Measures (Trial)", when the average price of crude oil in the international market changes for more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, domestic refined oil prices can be adjusted accordingly. June 9 of the above price adjustment is the base date, and July 6 is the 20th working day after the price adjustment. Therefore, by the time the conditions for today's 22 working days are met, the rate of change in the three places will certainly not be able to return to more than -4%, which means that the price adjustment window is set to open.
Taking into account that before each round of refined oil price reduction authorities will promptly honored, the industry is expected that the Development and Reform Commission will also release the price adjustment information today, July 11 early morning price adjustments.
The price adjustment will narrow
However, specific to the AM, the forecasts of various agencies are quite different. Chen Ching, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, believes that the price adjustment will be narrowed.
"Firstly, when the international oil price rose by more than US$80/barrel in the previous period, the country has already begun to deduct the profit rate of the refining chain, and the increase has narrowed. Therefore, this price cut will naturally narrow the decline. Second, the current domestic inflation. Pressure eased. In June, CPI rose by 2.2% year-on-year, hitting a new low in 29 months. Therefore, a relatively high oil price will not have a more significant impact on prices. Third, considering the current international situation and the current status of China's crude oil imports, energy Safety and energy-saving emission reductions are also reasons for narrowing the adjustment rate.†Chen Qing expects the country to cut the ceiling price of refined oil by RMB 300/t to RMB 400/t tonight.
However, Li Hong, a business analyst, expects the price cut will be 450 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton, as the rate of change in the three places has fallen by more than -9%.
According to calculations, if the oil price is reduced by 400 yuan/ton, the number 93 gasoline will drop by approximately 0.31 yuan/liter, and the No. 0 diesel oil will decrease by approximately 0.34 yuan/liter.
The industry believes that the future reduction in refined oil prices will ensure that the oil source in the retail sector will be guaranteed. At the same time, it will increase the willingness of private cars to travel and benefit the automobile manufacturing industry. In addition, industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, freight logistics and warehousing will benefit directly.
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