Shovel machinery welcomes "middle growth" era

After many years of development, China's shovel transportation machinery industry has been very mature in its overall technology and can fully meet the needs of the domestic market. At the same time, the shovel transportation machinery has already passed through the chaotic period in which there are many production enterprises, product quality is uneven, and price wars are rampant. Through further integration and development during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, market concentration has increased significantly and the scale effect has become apparent. . The year 2012 is a crucial year for the country to implement the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” and promote the transformation and upgrading. It is also the year in which the situation is striving for progress stably and fully protecting growth. With the transformation of the country’s economic growth, the Chinese construction machinery industry has gradually transitioned from high-speed growth to steady growth, and some new changes and new conditions have also appeared in the shovel transportation machinery industry. The industry’s development has gradually entered “moderately rapid growth”. At this stage, I will use the loaders, bulldozers and flat machines as an example to analyze the market conditions from January to September 2012.

View of the market - 2012 market operation of the shovel transportation machinery industry 1. Loader According to statistics from the China National Engineering Machinery Industry Association's shovel transportation machinery branch, from January to September 2012, cumulative sales of 28 major loader manufacturers in China Loader 138,341 units, a year-on-year decrease of 27.99%. Compared with last year, the year-on-year trend in 2012 has dropped by 30.04% since March, and there has been no obvious rebound. In August and September, the decline further expanded, and the market is still languishing in the depressed region. From a single month’s point of view, September loader sales were 7.13% higher than the previous month, and it was the first time in five months that it has rebounded. Comparing the trend of the loader market in the past three years, “bounce” will occur during the period of August and September every year, which is a normal seasonal adjustment.

From the perspective of corporate sales, most of the brand sales and year-on-year declines, only Shantui, Anhui Heli and Caterpillar, Liebherr and other few brands to maintain positive growth year-on-year. From January to September 2012, Liugong has sold more than 25,000 loaders, and Linong and Longgong have followed and sales have exceeded 20,000. In addition, 3T and 5T products are still mainstream sales products. From the perspective of regional sales, 2012 continued its sales trend in the last year, and North China still has a large advantage. Statistics from the club show that from January to September 2011, the top five sales regions were Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia. The top five sales in 2012 were Shandong, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Jiangsu. Hebei's sales dropped by more than 4,000 units from the 4th to the 7th place this year. Although the sales volume in Jiangsu Province has decreased by more than 500 units from last year, the ranking still rises to the 5th place.

From January to September 2012, 28 loader manufacturers accumulated 22,926 export loaders, an increase of 21.05% year-on-year, accounting for 16.57% of total sales. Among them, 2,391 export loaders were exported in September, a year-on-year increase of 10.90% and a year-on-year increase of 11.47%. Compared with the downturn in the entire construction machinery industry in China, exports continued to maintain a positive growth, reflecting the stability of loaders in the export market and the cost-effectiveness of products. The high characteristics have been recognized by users in the world. Similar to the domestic situation, 3T and 5T products are still the mainstream export products. Excluding the decline in the sales volume of small-scale loaders with models of 1t and below, the remaining tonnage products have a large increase, among which the skid steer loaders have increased by more than 200% year-on-year. The largest increase. Among export enterprises, the export sales of temporary workers reached 4105 units, and Xugong has the highest growth rate. Since 2010, China’s export volume of loaders has continuously increased, and the proportion of exports has also increased significantly. This shows that the international competitiveness of domestic brand loaders is continuously improving, and the export market has a greater role in driving sales across the industry.

2. Bulldozer According to statistics from the China National Engineering Machinery Industry Association's shovel transportation machinery branch, from January to September 2012, cumulative sales of 12 major bulldozer manufacturers in China were 7,579 units, a decrease of 31.60% year-on-year; 4,602 units were sold on the domestic market, accounting for The total sales volume of 60.72%, a year-on-year decrease of 44.82%; the export sales of 2977 units, accounting for 39.28% of total sales, an increase of 8.68%.

Combined with sales in 2011, the bulldozers market has been in a downtrend since the sharp decline in March 2011. In January 2012, the bulldozers finally reached a bottom of 460 units in the past three years. In February 2012, the bulldozers market began to stop falling. "Recovery, a significant recovery from the year-on-year trend. Compared with the bulldozers market trend in the past three years, the bulldozers market sales were flat in 2012, and there was no expected "peak" sales. From the perspective of corporate sales, Shantui sold more than 4,000 bulldozers from January to September 2012, accounting for 62.55% of the total market, and continued to steadily occupy the leading position in the bulldozer market. The second place is Shaanxi Zhonglian Market. The market share was 7.98%; Propaganda was ranked third, with a market share of 7.02%. Compared with the same period of last year, the demand for small horsepower products shrank sharply, with a drop of 39.38% in the 160- to 170-hp range. From the perspective of regional sales, from January to September 2011, the sales of bulldozers in Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Shandong provinces all exceeded 500; the cumulative sales of Guizhou, Liaoning, and Hubei provinces were all over 400. Compared with the same period of last year, in 2012 only Hubei sold nearly 396 cars last year, selling 396 bulldozers; and there were more than 250 units sold in Shandong, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, and Henan.

In terms of exports, from January to September 2012, a total of 2,977 bulldozers were exported, and the mainstream models for export remained 160 to 165 hp, accounting for 42.09% of total exports, which was a year-on-year increase of 8.69%, although the year-on-year decline was greater (2011 Bulldozers) Exports increased by 55.54%), but it is still very difficult to maintain a positive growth trend in the case of sluggish sales across the industry.

3. Grader According to the statistical data of the China National Engineering Machinery Industry Association's shovel transportation machinery branch, from January to September 2012, China's 13 major motor grader manufacturers sold a total of 3,185 motor graders, a year-on-year decrease of 20.04%. Compared with last year, the year-on-year trend of 2012 has been declining since the beginning of the year, and sales in the domestic market have been bleak. From a single month's point of view, the September grader fell 6.49% month-on-month and 28.72% year-on-year. Judging from the trend of motor graders in the past three years, there will be a “climax” of flatland sales in March, and the motor grader in 2012 will be in a state of “high or low climax”. The highest monthly sales will be 479 units, slightly higher than the average sales of last year. The volume was 421 units; in September, it sold only 268 units, which was the lowest value of sales for two years except for January and February 2010.

Judging from the sales situation of the company, Xu built more than 1,000 units of motorized graders to occupy 35.10% of the market in January-September 2012. Changlin, Shantui, Xiagong, Chenggong and other second- and third-tier grader companies can basically maintain their market share. Sales volume, market share slightly improved. In addition, the 165hp and 180hp products are still the mainstream sales products, accounting for 23.20% and 29.76% of the total sales, respectively. As a result of the overall market conditions, the sales model has moved closer to the mainstream models, and the market share has slightly improved. From the perspective of regional sales, in 2012, the general trend of regional sales lasted for the last year. The top five sales regions in 2012 were Jiangsu, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Shandong. Heilongjiang, ranked fourth last year, ranked 10th in 2012.

In September 2012, 135 export graders fell by 39.73% year-on-year. Affected by the industry, the grader’s export trend for the whole year was evident. In January-September 2012, 1,645 motor graders were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 7.11%, accounting for 51.64% of total sales. The 165hp and 180hp products are the main export models, and Xuzhu is the largest exporter. Since 2010, the changes in the export market have been affecting the market for motor graders. If the exports are good, the sales of motor graders are good. Grader exports accounted for more than 50% of total sales since June 2011, indicating that the export market has further improved the overall market for graders. In 2012, the proportion of export markets decreased slightly, and whether the industry found new growth points. Need to be further observed.

Analysis of the overall situation – development of the shovel transportation machinery industry 1. The characteristics of the industry's operation in 2012 are not the first time for China's shovel transportation machinery industry to welcome the arrival of winter, but this time it is obviously different.

The first is the long duration. After the main products of the shovel transportation machinery reached its peak in March 2011, it went down all the way in 18 months. It declared that the industry has bid farewell to the era of “high-speed growth” and the industry is facing unprecedented difficulties.

Followed by strong intensity. The month-on-year loader with a relatively stable market was down by 27.64% year-on-year in 2012 (up by 17.17% last year); the month-on-month average grader was down by 15.90% year-on-year (up by 22.79% last year); the average monthly bulldozer down by 25.26% year-on-year (by 34.45% last year). , The three figures show a significant year-on-year decline. It can be imagined that the entire industry has been hit hard.

The third is a deep level. The last round of "winter" still happened in 2008, I believe we still remember. In the fourth quarter of 2008, due to the impact of the international financial crisis and the depressed real estate market, product sales revenue and sales of major products both fell significantly. In less than a year, the state introduced 4 trillion investment and equipment manufacturing industry to revitalize the planning industry. Revenue from product sales and sales of major products rebounded. This round of economic downturn is manifested as weak investment. Domestic and foreign demands continue to shrink. There is no strong economic stimulus policy and “internal injury” has been formed.

The last is to deal with difficulties. China's manufacturing industry is greatly affected by policies. According to past experience, after the economic downturn, we often usher in a new round of investment and bring positive factors to the industry. At present, the Chinese economy still does not see signs of strong recovery, and government-led investment has shown signs of slowing down. In the absence of favorable policies, the biggest challenge for the shovel transportation industry is to face the market downturn.

When will the economy be able to rebound? Will the central government introduce corresponding stimulus policies? Once again, it will become a hot topic in the industry.

2. "Reversal" of macroeconomic indicators

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s gross domestic product in the first three quarters of 2012 was 3534.8 billion yuan, which was calculated at a comparable price and grew by 7.7% year-on-year, which was higher than the 7.5% annual economic growth target. In September, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 9.2%, which was 0.3% higher than that in August; the growth rate of consumption rose by 1 percentage point from August; the growth rate of exports rebounded by 7.2%, and the scale reached a record high.

At the same time, some economic leading indicators have also shown a pick-up trend: September PMI and consumer confidence index rose by 0.6 percentage points and 1.4 percentage points from August respectively. From January to September, the number of projects affiliated with the Central Government increased by 2.3% year-on-year, and local projects increased by 21.8% year-on-year. The monthly growth rate of fixed asset investment in China in September will hit a new high in a year, and the rebound in infrastructure investment is the main driving force.

China's economic “troika” has finally begun to accelerate. Both consumption and investment data have risen slightly. In September, the export volume was 9.9%, a sharp increase of 7.2%. A series of data reveals the basic information on the steady state of the economy's operating enterprises. How long will China's shovel transportation machinery industry and the entire construction machinery industry remain at the bottom? If the industry did not realize the "sweetness" brought by the economic recovery in September, How will the industry perform in the fourth quarter?

(3) Prediction of market operation in the fourth quarter of the shovel transportation machinery industry (1) The industry situation will improve from the end of the fourth quarter. The forecast of China’s economic growth will be stable and the pulling effect will be reflected in the fourth quarter. The warming up should be next year. After March.

In addition to seasonal fluctuations and other conventional factors, the fourth quarter of the shovel transportation machinery industry, if China's economic growth tends to stabilize and continue to show positive changes similar to September, the industry warming trend is expected to be reflected in the second half of the fourth quarter.

(2) Export recovery helps recovery of the industry From the perspective of China's income structure, the machinery industry is an important exporter, with exports accounting for about 30% of total sales, mainly concentrated in Asian and African countries and growing over the past few years. Up to 50%. From the perspective of the market structure of the shovel transportation machinery products, the proportion of sales of export products has been increasing, and the proportion of grader exports has reached 60%. The sluggish export demand in the first quarter of 2009 brought a greater impact on China's construction machinery industry. We still remember it. Therefore, if future exports pick up, it will play an important role in the recovery of the machinery industry.

(3) Potential space for development of the industry The huge "Industrial Blue Book" released by the Chinese Academy of Sciences on October 25th "China's Industrialization Progress Report" pointed out that during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, China's industrialization process entered the late stage of industrialization, across the country and regions. The level of urbanization is far behind the level of industrialization. Since 1978, the process of urbanization in China has been accelerating. The urbanization rate has increased at an average annual rate of 1% to 51.27%, and the urban population has increased from 172 million to 690 million. Nevertheless, compared with 78% of urbanization rates in developed countries, there is still much room for development. The urbanization rate in China must reach the level of the developed countries, and there are still about 30 growth points. According to the annual growth rate of urbanization of 1%, there is still a 30-year development period. The State Council issued a White Paper on China’s Energy Policy on October 24, which clarified the eight major guidelines for energy development in China. On the same day, the "two plans" for nuclear power were also passed, marking that China's nuclear power construction was officially launched one year after the freeze. In addition, the Ministry of Land and Resources of China recently tendered for the prospecting rights of 20 blocks of shale gas. From this, it can be seen that the four major factors driving the development of China's shovel transportation machinery industry - energy industry, urbanization construction, transportation facilities construction and export market will continue to develop, and the industry has great potential for development.

Breaking the Difficulties - Exploring "The Survival of the Enterprise"

In recent years, the high growth of the shovel transportation machinery industry has benefited from investment driven by China's extensive development model. Especially after 2008, China launched a 4 trillion investment plan, which not only saved the crumbling real estate industry, but also quickly set off in China. A frenzy of investment overheating has benefited the construction machinery industry. At present, China's economic growth has changed from extensive to intensive. In 2012, it experienced severe market baptism. We gradually realized that this round of economic adjustment will be a historic round of adjustment, and China can no longer use the "high speed" of 2008. Continue to develop. China's construction machinery will bid farewell to the era of "high-speed growth" and step into a robust "moderate-speed growth" period.

1. The end of “success in scale” China began to promote economic restructuring in 2008. However, it was interrupted by the financial crisis and is now back on the track of transformation. Four years ago, China's economic adjustment was mainly in several aspects. One was to solve the problem of overcapacity in 12 sectors; the other was to solve the low-end problem of the added value of industrial products. However, there is a price to change the mode of economic growth. As long as it is a transitional approach, it means adjusting the existing economic structure and the economic growth rate will decline. Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of International Studies of the National Development and Reform Commission, commented: “The current economic difficulties are not the difficulties of the economic situation, but the difficulties of the growth method.” All problems this year focus on only one issue, that is, whether it is a short-term growth issue. Is it still a problem of long-term growth adjustment?

Since 2012, many companies have still attributed the sharp decline in their performance to the external market environment, and even have an illusion. The hope of reviving the economy is once again pinned on the central government's stimulus policies. However, the sequelae caused by the 4 trillion investment have not yet been dispersed, the production capacity of the construction machinery industry is still in excess, and the possibility of another large-scale economic stimulus is almost zero.

This is a signal to warn us that the era of China's enterprises in the earthmoving machinery industry that rely on economies of scale has come to an end.

2. The challenge of the "rules of the game" As the sales are sluggish, the game rules of the terminal are being destroyed. In order to grab market share, some aggressive sales methods are popular, such as free down payment, free deposit, and interest-free. Facts have proved that the rise of corporate accounts, the steep increase in cost pressures, and the tight cash flow have made it difficult for companies that rely on low prices to gain competitive advantage. How to ensure an effective market share and complete the reshuffling of the industry structure with the cold of winter is an issue that every company is considering.

Take the loader as an example. At present, there are about 130 companies in the loader industry in China, 22 in annual sales of more than 500, and more than 5,000 key companies in addition to the top 7 Chinese companies, plus Foton Lovol. There are 9 in Changlin and so on. The top seven Chinese companies are Liugong, Xiagong, Longgong, Lingong, Xugong, Chenggong, and Carter Mountain. Among them, the top 4 loaders have annual sales of more than 30,000 loaders, and the market share exceeds the total. 50%. The whirlwind expansion has achieved the scale of today's loader industry. When the "medium-speed growth" period hits, China's loader city industry structure may change, and some SMEs that do not have core competitive advantages will gradually fade out of the market, leading to further increase in industry concentration. Competition in the industry will not only be limited to product competition. In a sense, it will be a competition in the industrial chain. The degree of industry concentration will increase again, and the era of flourishing will also end.

If you continue along the original route, you will most likely fall into a cliff. The rising costs, the loss of orders, and the difficulty in financing will allow industry players to think about how to “break through”. The "breakthrough" method that comes to mind at first is to make efforts in the market diversification, product diversification and strategic diversification, in order to improve the "survival ability" of the enterprise.

How do companies achieve diversified development? Market diversification is to adhere to "walking on two legs", taking into account the development of domestic and foreign markets, and at the same time continue to develop foreign emerging markets, and cannot "hang a tree to hang". Strategic diversification is to change one company into multiple companies and greatly increase the company's ability to resist risks. In terms of product diversification, companies can develop “differentiated” according to their product characteristics to avoid homogenization.

(1) Promoting the market to internationalization Since China's accession to the World Trade Organization, it has opened the door to foreign trade and opened the door to the Chinese market for foreign companies. Take the loader as an example, foreign companies bring advanced management and technology to promote Chinese domestic loader companies to innovate in management, technology, and markets, represented by Caterpillar, Volvo, and Kobelco. The rapid development of loader companies has formed the current market structure of the loader industry. The domestic loader companies have exerted their cost advantages, cultural advantages, and geographical advantages to the fullest, which has improved the international competitiveness of loaders, entered the international market, and changed the competitive landscape in the international market. China's export space is still large. China's shovel transportation machinery products should continue to greatly improve the reliability and durability of products. Under the premise of adjusting the product structure, we actively explore potential markets, such as the Indonesian and Mongolian markets, will be able to internationally The market has achieved another success.

(2) Using "strategies" to enhance the overall strength of the enterprise After the construction machinery market is in a downturn, technology and market are more precious. Many companies have chosen to enter the "strategic adjustment period" at this time. For example, in the boom of M&A in the construction machinery industry in 2012 (Zhonglian M & A CIFA, Sanyi M & A Elephant, XCMG M & A Schweing Germany and other cases), all companies have achieved various degrees of improvement in their overall strength. The first is to expand the scope of financing of enterprises. It can continuously increase capital investment and expand production scale. The second is to enhance the company's ability to resist risks. In the market economy, risks will be encountered at any time, and changing one's defense against multiple attacks will greatly enhance the company's ability to resist risks.

The third is to activate the management mechanism and agency channels. From a single management to a number of common management, the enthusiasm of all investors has been mobilized, so that sharing of resources and reasonable allocation of resources, so that enterprises are full of vitality. The fourth is the integration of management experience and management personnel resources. The management level of the enterprise and the quality of the management personnel have been continuously improved, and the longevity of the family has been achieved, achieving intensive management and modern management.

(2) Product differentiation “differentiation” Development “differentiation” was first embodied in the product level, ie, R&D and production of new products that are different from existing products in the market according to market demand, and with the help of their uniqueness to get rid of competition and quickly open the market. .

China's shovel transportation machinery products are highly homogenized, and low profits have also become a common problem faced by various brands. As a result, agents all over the country have begun to find alternatives and devote more and more energy to maintenance and accessories sales. After the sale of the market, in order to expand profit margins. There are also innovations in marketing methods. For example, Shantui launched the first micro-movie collection campaign with the theme of “Exciting Aspects Around Us”. Case Construction Machinery filmed the industry’s first truly meaningful micro-movie, and “micro-broadcasting” and “micro-topics” are constantly emerging... ... It is this kind of "micro" power that extends invisibly and creates a new "micromarketing" model. The construction machinery industry is currently working hard to develop "internal strength" and seek breakthroughs. Microfilm is definitely a novel and good marketing tool for enterprise product promotion and brand communication.

In fact, whether it is the product itself or the means of marketing, it is "differentiation" that does not diverge. Large-scale enterprises can take the road of scale and master the market initiative; medium-sized enterprises can take the path of specialization and develop other companies that cannot imitate products; small enterprises can take the path of personalization and meet the needs of customers to the greatest extent, forming unique and distinctive. personality. If enterprises want to stand out in the market, they also need to reflect and adjust their strategies and market ideas in a timely manner. They must seek new differences and adapt to changes in the external environment.

Looking for the Future - Development Trend of China's Shovel Transportation Industry For the traditional manufacturing industry, especially for the relatively stable technical shovel market, the development is an eternal theme. In the period of “high-speed economic growth”, it will be able to make half of the country bigger and stronger. The opportunity is for people with strength and scale. However, to survive in the "middle age", the opportunity seems to favor people who "choose opportunities and emphasize details." Changes in decision-making thinking are the key factors in decisive victory. In 2012, the performance of enterprises in the shovel transportation machinery industry was still remarkable.

1) For the first time, the Liugong CLG856 loader went with the 29th Antarctic expedition team to the South Pole on the “Snow Dragon”. Liugong has developed a special condition suitable for the South and North Pole on the basis of its ability to produce world-class high-level prototype loaders (Liugong is the first company in the world to fully master the technology of plateau products and have successfully applied it to loader products). The equipments for work can meet the actual requirements in terms of cold start, emissions, UV protection, heating, quick change spreaders and maintenance, and waste recycling.

2) Carter's newest hydraulic shovel uses hybrid technology. The new 7495 electric shovel also uses energy recovery technology to reduce power consumption. Foton Lovol's domestic LNG LNG loader fueled by liquefied natural gas, the engine has achieved carbonless work, environmental protection and energy saving effect is remarkable, is the latest development of environmental protection and energy saving product development.

3) Longgong loaders introduced two new 5-ton loaders, LG853DN (single rocker type) and LG853DH (double rocker type). These two loaders maximize the versatility of the entire machine parts, unloading height 3550mm slightly higher than other brands 3400mm, but the working device and purchase costs remain unchanged, suitable for all kinds of narrow space operations, and stable Sex and flexibility are more prominent.

4) XCMG made frequent breakthroughs in large loader technologies and products used in ports and mines.

This year, the market share of XCMG's loader has rapidly climbed to 10%, and it has achieved a staged victory for Chinese loader companies to attack the high-end product market.

5) The new CL958 wheel loader independently developed, tested and produced by Rexroth was formally rolled out and delivered to Thai customers in October. The CL958 loader features high configuration, safety, comfort and high efficiency.

In the coming years, the development trend of China's shovel transportation industry will present five major development trends:

First, competition in the domestic market has intensified, profit margins have continued to shrink, and market share has become fierce;

Secondly, industrial enterprises will experience the stage of "reducing the cadres" and gradually phase out enterprises lacking core competitiveness. The loader industry structure will face a new round of "reshuffle";

Third, the independent research and development capabilities, innovation capabilities, and survivability of industrial enterprises will be further strengthened, and the loader industry will shift from "scale" to "fine";

Fourth, the trend of mainstream technologies such as large-scale, intelligent, low-carbon, and remanufacturing will be further applied to the shovel transportation machinery products;

Fifth, the international competitiveness of shovel transportation machinery products has been further strengthened, and the proportion of sales in the export market has further expanded;

Sixth, the key components and spare parts for earthmoving machinery products have great potential for development.

In the long run, if the profit margin is too small, it will lead to insufficient development potential for the development of shovel transportation machinery enterprises, and there will be no greater power to invest in technological R&D. It is difficult to withstand the market competition under the new situation. Although the current demand for high-end products in China's shovel transportation machinery market is relatively low, along with the advent of the “middle-speed era” and the intensification of market competition; the increasing market demand for high productivity, high reliability, and low fuel consumption, mainstream equipment. The inflection point of high-end product cost-effective game is set to emerge, which will bring transformation pressure to China's shovel transportation machinery industry. Whether the company can find the balance between the short-term market and long-term development will become the key to the development of the shoveling transportation machinery industry during the period of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” and beyond. In general, the prospects for shovel transportation machinery are bright. There is still much room for development in the future and it will once again rise to a new height. The entire industry should pay more attention to its own technological accumulation in the future development process, maintain its forward-looking nature, and move forward step by step.