For the heavy truck market, if you compare 2007 to a major year, 2008 is a medium year, and the possibility of negative growth is as small as in 2005.
Since March 2007, a new round of "blowout" growth has engulfed the heavy truck industry, and the heavy truck market has sold more than 50,000 units in a single month for three consecutive months. In April, heavy truck sales reached the highest in a single month. 53929 vehicles; and after the second half of the year, the heavy-duty truck market showed a more obvious decline, in addition to September, the remaining months of sales fell to 40,000 or less. However, compared with the same period of last year, the heavy truck market still maintained high growth, with a slight slowdown in growth. Statistics show that in 2007, the cumulative production of heavy trucks was 489,900, an increase of 61.36% year-on-year; sales of 487,500 units, an increase of 58.64% year-on-year.
Overall Analysis of Heavy Truck Market in 2007
In 2007, with the sound development of the macroeconomic environment, strict road traffic regulations provided the conditions for the healthy development of the heavy-duty auto market. Driven by the three major factors of investment in fixed assets, vehicle renewal, and export growth, the production and sales of China's heavy-duty auto market showed a strong upward trend in 2007.
Throughout the heavy-duty truck sales market in 2007, heavy-duty trucks with a total mass of >32 tons showed the fastest year-on-year growth rate of up to 208.51%. In 2007, a total of 1,885 units were sold; 19 tons of heavy-duty trucks with a total mass of ≤ 26 tons were still maintained. With the largest sales, in 2007 sales of 43,400 units accounted for 46.63% of the total sales volume of heavy-duty trucks; 26 tons of heavy-duty trucks with a total mass of ≤ 32 tons also achieved rapid growth. In 2007, a total of 31,700 units were sold. The year-on-year increase of 102.87%. In addition, semi-trailer tractors sold a total of 177,800 vehicles in 2007, a year-on-year increase of 91.86%.
From the industry sales data, although the growth rate of the heavy-duty card market slowed down significantly in the second half of 2007, the major production enterprises achieved rapid growth year-on-year. China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation won the championship with 99,800 units, which is a year-on-year increase of 65.78%. FAW's sales volume with a cumulative sales volume of 96,200 units followed, a year-on-year increase of 47.32%. The third to seventh units are Dongfeng (8.87 million units), Shaanxi Auto (60,100 units), Futian (56,600 units), SAIC Iveco Hongyan (24,000 units), and North Benz (15,100 units). Among them, Shaanxi Auto and Foton continued to maintain the momentum of rapid growth, with an increase of 84.36% and 77.43%, respectively.
In addition, Hualing (11,200 units), JAC (1.02 million units), and Sanhuan (0.59 million units) ranked eighth to tenth also achieved rapid growth, with year-on-year increases of 107.02% and 235.56% respectively. And 94.56%.
The market changes of the three categories of vehicles in 2007 were as follows: From January to February, the market performance of each vehicle model was low. From March onwards, the entire heavy truck market began to increase its volume. Trucks have continued to maintain good momentum until the end of the year. Sales volume remained at around 8,000 vehicles; as the highest proportion of truck chassis, its changing trend has a greater impact on the entire market. From March to June, its market capacity was more than 20,000, and the growth rate slowed down in the second half of the month. The average sales volume is basically maintained at 16,000 units; the tractors, as the leading players in the heavy-duty truck market in 2007, have a relatively stable overall operation compared with the chassis market, with a monthly market capacity of more than 10,000 units, and the highest level exceeded 20,000 vehicles in March.
From the year-on-year rate of increase: Among the seven companies, Shaanqi, Foton, and CNHTC have three companies that exceed the industry's average growth rate (58.64%). Shaanxi Automobile not only increased by nearly 100% year-on-year, but also maintained the industry for 24 months. First, although the rest of the company, Mercedes-Benz, FAW, Hongyan, and Dongfeng, also showed an upward trend, the increase rate was slightly lower than that of the first three companies. 2008 Macroeconomic Policy Unfavorable Factors for the Heavy Truck Market
For the heavy truck industry, it is the largest affected by the macro economy. In 2005, the heavy-duty truck market entered a low point, and in 2007, based on continued growth in 2006, it achieved explosive growth. In 2008, the heavy-duty truck market will hardly grow as explosively as in 2007.
Many heavy truck companies have shown some concern when looking ahead to the 2008 market.
China National Heavy Duty Truck Chairman Ma Chunji at the business conference expects the heavy-duty truck market to continue to grow at a high rate in 2008, but the magnitude will definitely not be as high as in 2007.
Xiao Guopu, Vice President of SAIC Motor Vehicles, said that at the first business conference since the listing of SAIC Iveco Hongyan, the macroeconomic climate change in 2008 will not be small. The tight monetary policy, falling investment, rising raw materials, and energy-saving emission reduction policies will force Enterprises adjust their product mix. In 2008, commercial vehicles will also face a major adjustment.
Yuan Hongming, executive deputy general manager of Shaanxi Automobile Group, believes that tightening monetary policy, curbing investment in fixed assets, controlling GDP growth, and rising fuel prices will all affect demand for heavy trucks. In 2008, these impacts will be concentrated. At the same time, the total number of heavy-duty vehicles in the entire society has exceeded 2.3 million, and the situation of tight transport capacity has been fundamentally alleviated. In 2008, the heavy truck market demand characteristics will be the internal adjustment of product structure. Therefore, it is difficult for the heavy truck market in 2008 to reach the level of 2007.
1. Heavy trucks, as a means of production, have a large correlation with the growth rate of fixed asset investment across the society. In the long run, the factors that promote the growth of the medium- and heavy-duty truck industry still exist, mainly the demand for road freight, infrastructure construction and investment in real estate development. Under macro-control, the central government's policy of curbing investment will exert its power, and the construction of the Olympic Games is drawing to a close. The country has slowed its investment projects, so the growth rate of heavy trucks should be objectively lower than in 2007.
2. With the full implementation of the State III standard in 2008, the entire industry chain of the heavy truck industry is facing challenges, including the issue of how the engines and oil products meet the standard; the full implementation of the country III will increase the cost of the company, making the products of the country III face a comprehensive The increase, in fact, has been demonstrated in the previously listed models.
Heavy truck industry analysts, the State III products make heavy truck manufacturers increase the cost of about 20%, is expected to heavy truck products will rise 2 to 60,000 yuan, an increase of 10% to 15%, this part of the cost of how in the vehicle, zero The distribution between accessories and consumers will become a must to think.
In general, the heavy-duty truck industry will face the dual pressure of overall price increase and sales growth year-on-year, and the heavy truck market may experience overall cooling.
3. The partial or full implementation of State III emission will lead to a significant increase in the cost and use cost of the user's car, which will have a significant negative impact on the heavy truck market. In the short term, it will cause a sharp decline in the sales volume of heavy trucks; in the long run, it will delay the vehicle update cycle for heavy trucks. 4. The early purchase effect of State III implementation in 2008 will be greatly reduced. On the one hand, the early purchase effect of State III has released a large part in 2007; on the other hand, with the continuation of time and the uncertainty of the implementation of State III emissions, the expectations of users for the implementation of laws and regulations are greatly reduced, and advance purchase behavior is also Will be greatly reduced.
5. The pulling effect of weight-based charging policies on heavy trucks will be drastically reduced in 2008. As of September 2007, 19 provinces and municipalities have implemented weight-based toll collection on expressways in China, and the mileage of toll-free toll highways has accounted for 68% of the country’s total highway mileage. In 2008, the proportion of total freight carried by weight-based toll collection was relatively small, and it has now reflected a 20% to 30% increase in demand. Therefore, it is expected that the pulling weight of the toll collection fee in 2008 will decrease sharply year-on-year.
6, heavy dump trucks will have a certain decline. Heavy-duty dump trucks have become the main demand in 2007. With the gradual strengthening of national environmental protection awareness, the country has paid more and more attention to environmental protection. Energy conservation and consumption reduction have become one of the indexes for measuring the achievements of governments at all levels, and the development of high-energy-consuming and highly-polluting industries. It will be subject to more and more constraints. For the unqualified coal mines, the forced rectification of high-energy-consuming and high-pollution projects will be shut down, and the corresponding requirements for logistics transportation, dump trucks, and professional vehicles will be suppressed to some extent. It is expected that the most basic elements of the demand for the heavy truck market in 2008 will be partially suppressed, together with the fact that some important project projects in the west and across the country are basically in place and have also affected some of the demand.
2008 macro policy favorable factors for heavy trucks
There are not a few people worried about the heavy-duty truck market in 2008, and some people even put forward a pessimistic argument that the heavy truck market may experience negative growth in 2008. The author believes that if the heavy truck market is compared to 2007 as a big year, 2008 is a medium year, and the possibility of negative growth like 2005 is very small.
1. It is expected that GDP growth will remain high in 2008, and it will hover around 11%. The overall economy will maintain good and rapid growth as the main theme, and the Olympic benefits will be maximized.
2. The continuous improvement of various highway infrastructures, further acceleration of urbanization, and active promotion of new rural construction will all have a positive impact on the heavy-duty truck market in 2008.
3. The pulling effect of weight-based charging policies on heavy trucks will continue in 2008. As of September 2007, only 19 provinces and municipalities have implemented weight-based toll collection on highways in China, and the mileage of toll-free toll highways has accounted for 68% of the country’s total highway mileage. It is therefore expected that toll-by-weight fees will continue to drive consumption in the heavy truck market in 2008.
4. Heavy truck export market will grow steadily. With the rapid improvement of China's heavy truck product quality and the improvement of after-sales services, heavy truck exports have achieved unprecedented breakthroughs. Although the macroeconomic environment has relatively few favorable factors for the export of commercial vehicles, especially after the appreciation of the renminbi, it has adversely affected the Chinese export market. However, at present, China's commercial vehicle market has entered a “stable and mature growth periodâ€. High export growth has also entered the fourth year, the scale of exports has continued to expand, the export market has continued to expand, the grades and technical levels of export products have been continuously improved, and brand building and improvement of after-sales service have also been continuously strengthened.
5. In the "Several Opinions on Promoting Fast and Good Development of Road Transportation", it was pointed out that the development of van-type transport, drop-and-hook transport, and automobile trains should be encouraged, and freight models should be encouraged to gradually become multi-axis, heavy-duty, and van-type. Development, improve transport efficiency, save energy consumption. Therefore, it is expected that the towing vehicle will remain the mainstream in 2008, but the growth momentum will obviously slow down.
Although the impact of weight-based toll on the demand for tractors has been largely absorbed in 2007, with the continuous expansion of the implementation area, new products represented by 6×2 tractors are rapidly increasing in quantity, low weight, and high efficiency. Fuel-efficient heavy trucks are still favored by users. In 2008, they will further replace 4×2 tractors. From the perspective of 2007, even though most manufacturers launched 6×2 tractors after March or even the second half of the year, 6×2 has become the main product on the tractors of heavy-duty truck manufacturers, and since 6× 2After the tractors are on the market, because there is more than one axle compared to a 4×2 tractor, it can pull several tons more, it has the advantages of light weight and low price, so the future 6×2 tractors will be more and more on the road freight. popular. The 4×2 tractors have been falling all the way in the second half of last year. The substitution trend is obvious. It is expected that the 6×2 tractor products will further increase in 2008, with an increase of 10% to 20%, and the high-end 6×2 subdivision products will become Its main growth point.
6. The market's power demand for heavy trucks climbed. In 2007, 280 horsepower or more heavy trucks became the mainstream in the market, heavy trucks with more than 280 horsepower increased by more than 100%, and sales volume reached 350,000 vehicles. At the same time, 10L and 12L heavy-duty trucks have become development trends. Followed by a substantial increase in the demand for tractors. In 2007, the sales volume of tractors increased by 104.9%, far exceeding the average growth rate of the heavy-duty truck industry. The transportation of medium and long-distance highways gradually shifted to the mode of transport of tractors. The above characteristics will continue in 2008. These high-power and large-displacement heavy trucks will also constitute a growth point for heavy truck sales.
7. Economic and lightweight 8×4 trucks will grow. With the implementation of toll-by-weight charging and the further management of over-limit overloading, users are demanding more and more weight from vehicles. Low weight means high returns. The economical 8×4 trucks are faced with less policy risks because they meet the trend of multi-axis, and they have certain advantages over semi-trailer tractors in terms of their own weight. Therefore, it is expected that there will be further growth in 2008.
8, from the sales structure, the truck is the second largest sub-sector. In 2007, the growth rate of the truck industry was 27%. From 1999 to 2007, the compound annual growth rate of trucks was 15%. Professional organizations predict that the growth rate of the truck industry in 2008 will return to normal level - 10% to 15%.
The heavy-duty truck market has experienced the fastest growth, which has been proved by statistical data for several years. Among sub-sectors, heavy-duty trucks (including chassis and semitrailer tractors) have the fastest growth, with a compound growth rate of 35% over the past eight years. The growth of medium trucks lags behind the industry average, only 4%. The trend of medium-sized trucks being compressed by heavy-duty trucks is very clear.
From the perspective of macroeconomic level, the economic growth rate for 2008 determined at the 2007 Central Economic Work Conference is expected to be around 10%. Although the growth rate has slowed down significantly, the total demand is considerable. Economic growth still has a significant driving effect on the heavy truck market demand. Therefore, the heavy truck market in 2008 will still maintain stable growth, but the situation of "blowouts" is unlikely to reappear.
Based on the above analysis of the heavy truck market environment in 2008, the author believes that the general tone is: The overall development of the heavy-duty vehicle market is stable. In 2008, the heavy-duty truck market will enter a new round of adjustment. The annual market sales volume is about 40,000 to 420 thousand units, compared with 2007. The annual decline is about 16%.
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