At present, the rate of urea utilization is still maintained at a high of more than 80%. The prices of urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei have fallen below 2,200 yuan/ton, although prices in the Shandong region fell to 2,100 yuan/ton last week. A slight rebound, but market transactions are still tepid. Li Baoquan believes that the current domestic top dressing has certain support for urea prices, but after all, agricultural demand is limited. Urea prices have fluctuated significantly, market confidence is not stable, and dealers’ enthusiasm for getting goods is still low, so the market is in a downturn. Trends.
Zhang Jialing, deputy manager of Yantai Siruikang Agribusiness Group Co., Ltd., also believes that early urea prices fell sharply. After the recent rainfall, the price of urea in the Shandong region rebounded at a low level driven by the top-dressing of corn, but the rate was not significant. From the perspective of summer, agricultural fertilizers have limited support to the market. He said: "Since the current urea market is in a downturn, dealers are basically purchasing on-demand and follow-up with sales to avoid market risks."
After the price of urea fell sharply, although there was support for using fertilizer in summer, due to the prudence of dealers, in addition to normal sales, dealers in many regions began to sell early-stage low-cost supplies, and some high-end dealers were already There was a loss in the price fluctuations of the current round, and the current dealer’s business strategy is still to keep inventory as low as possible to cope with the market downturn.
Li Baoquan said: "Although domestic urea prices have fallen, international prices have dropped to 380 US dollars, and domestic prices have only been kept at 2,000 yuan/ton or more. Although they have entered the urea export window, the export situation has not changed. Not optimistic.†He believes that because domestic and international prices have still not found a binding point, international buyers are not willing to accept goods, so the volume of port gathering is still small, export transactions are still limited, but given that international demand still exists, so late There will certainly be exports of urea, but exports are expected to be flat or slightly lower than last year.
Zhang Jialing also believes that after the recent decline in urea prices, although there are successive collections of ports, but they are all based on joint sales with the Feds, and the volume is not large, according to the current international market price, many domestic companies will There will be a loss of business. The reason why there is a collection of ports is mainly because the inventory pressure of manufacturers has gradually increased. He said: "Last year, Sirucon's urea export volume was small, but it also had more than 24,000 tons. This year's market is not doing well. At present, it has not signed any export orders with foreign parties. It is expected that domestic exports will decrease this year. “Zhang Jialing analyzed that on the one hand, it is affected by the overall lack of optimism in the international economic situation. On the other hand, due to the increase in urea capacity in the Middle East and a certain cost advantage over China, it will divert China’s exports.
Mao Guobin, assistant to general manager of Hubei Saning Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., believes that although the current domestic urea price has already fallen sharply and is basically close to the company's production cost line, the current domestic price is still unable Exports to Hong Kong, such as exports according to the current offshore prices, domestic companies will suffer losses.
On the one hand, domestic demand is not booming, on the other hand, the export situation is not optimistic. From the current market, the main factor affecting urea exports is price. If domestic and international prices are to find a joint point, the only possibility is that domestic prices will decline.
Mao Guobin said: "Although there is still some demand in the urea market, but after sharp price cuts on the overall market confidence hit a relatively large, so even if the short-term rebound in the use of fertilizer in the summer low rebound, the outlook is not likely to maintain stability." He analyzed It is believed that the current urea market is still in a state of oversupply. Although the prices have returned to normal, due to the continued increase in domestic production capacity in the second half of the year and the limited demand, the trend of urea in the latter period is not optimistic and will maintain the trend of continued downturn.
Zhang Jialing believes that due to the absence of India River Pakistan export large single pull, the domestic agricultural market fertilizer demand support is limited, in the short term, although urea prices have rebounded slightly, but it is difficult to stabilize, it is expected that the market price will stabilize In the fall.
Li Baoquan said: "Although domestic fertilizers have some support for urea prices, limited agricultural demand, coupled with sluggish exports, the situation of domestic oversupply will be highlighted, and the market price will show a steady decline. The reason for the stability is that although the price of coal has fallen by a certain amount, the decline is not large, and the cost of labor, transportation, and electricity prices have remained high. This is a support for urea prices; the reason for the slight decrease in prices is due to the current Demand cannot support prices higher, market competition will make prices appear to decline."
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