The "micro-growth" of 2.9% in the first half is expected to increase by 10% in the second half of the year

Statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers show that in the first half of the year, the production and sales of automobiles reached 9,529,200 and 9,598,100 vehicles, an increase of 4.1% and 2.9% respectively over the same period of the previous year. Domestic new car sales have entered the era of “micro-growth” from the rapid growth of the past decade.

(Reporter Wang Canbin) Domestic new car sales have entered the era of “micro-growth” from the rapid growth of the past ten years. The China Automobile Association also said that the production and sales of automobiles grew at a low rate year-on-year, showing a trend of increasing month by month, but the inventory situation is not optimistic. As of the end of June, the inventory of auto companies was 688,600, a decrease of 40,300 from the end of May and a decrease of 57,000 from the end of 2011. Both passenger car and commercial vehicle inventory have declined.

Affected by the macro-environment, the situation of China's auto production and sales began to be unfavorable at the beginning of this year. Accumulative production and sales in the first three months were lower than the same period of last year, but the decline showed a narrowing trend from month to month. From January to April, automobile production achieved positive growth, and from January to May, the sales of automobiles also changed from negative growth in the previous four months to positive growth. After that, the growth rate of automobile production and sales showed a trend of rising month by month. The China Automobile Association judges that China's auto production and sales experienced high growth in 2009 and 2010 and entered a high consolidation phase. At present, the economic situation at home and abroad is relatively complicated, and China's macroeconomy still faces downward pressure. In the short term, there is no rapid growth of automobile production and sales. From the completion of the first half of the year, the current car production and sales are still in the adjustment phase.

Looking into the second half of the year: Looking more cautious In general, sales in the second half of the year are better than in the first half of the year, and face complicated factors such as oil price cuts and limited licensing in Guangzhou. Rao Da, the secretary-general of the Federation of Travel Unions, said that the working day in the second half of the year was five days longer than the first half of the year, laying the foundation for a slow recovery in the second half of the year. He predicted that the growth rate of general passenger vehicles will be about 10% this year, the growth rate of automobiles will be about 7%, and the total sales volume of cars will be about 19.8 million. Liu Ming, director of the Industry and Market Analysis Department of the Economic Information Center of the National Information Center, said that the automobile energy-saving subsidy policy has been introduced, and the possibility of trade-in replacement and automobile introduction to the countryside is also relatively large. Overall, the market environment for passenger cars in the second half of the year is slightly better than the first half of the year. The national growth rate of 10% is worth looking forward to.

Luo Lei, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, was less optimistic. He said that China's economic situation may rebound in the second half of this year. If the economy rebounds, it will help the auto market to recover. However, the impact of limit licensing is greater, and the auto market may still be flat in the second half of the year.

One of the four characteristics of the four characteristics “micro-growth”: passenger cars are faster than commercial vehicles. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of automobile production and sales is obviously different. The growth rate of passenger cars is obviously better than that of commercial vehicles. Commercial vehicles use trucks to produce and sell products. The lowest level is a negative growth.

In the first half of this year, the production and sales of passenger cars were completed 7,599,300 units and 7,613,500 units respectively, which represented a year-on-year increase of 7.9% and 7.1% respectively. The growth rate of SUV production and sales was the highest, both exceeding 30%; followed by cars, the growth rate of production and sales was 6% and 5.5%; MPV production was slightly lower than the same period of last year, sales volume increased by 4.3% year-on-year; cross-segment passenger car production increased year-on-year. 1.25%, sales volume decreased by 0.8% over the same period of last year, and the downward trend has eased.

In the first half of the year, the production and sales of commercial vehicles completed 1,929,900 units and 1,984,600 units respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 8.6% and 10.4%, respectively. The production and sales of passenger car models were all higher than the same period of last year, and the production and sales of non-integrated vehicles for trucks, semi-trailer tractors and trucks were all lower than the same period of last year.

No.2: In the first half of the downturn of local brands, the sales of local brand passenger cars were 3.5111 million, which was a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. The overall growth of passenger vehicles during the same period was positive. It accounted for 41.4% of the total passenger car sales, and the market share dropped by 3% year-on-year. In the first half of the month, the monthly situation showed a definite downward trend, and the monthly situation was lower than the same period of last year. In June, it reached the lowest point in the first half of the year. The data shows that although the comprehensive competitiveness of China's domestic brand passenger vehicles has greatly improved, it still has a certain gap with foreign brands. With a relatively stable market growth, the competition is even fiercer.

In the first half of the year, the sale of self-owned brand cars was 1,423,300, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, accounting for 27.2% of the total sales of cars, and the occupancy rate decreased by 3.6 percentage points year-on-year. In sharp contrast to this, the Japanese, German, U.S., French, and Korean systems were all higher than the same period of the previous year, of which the German and Korean systems continued to grow at a faster rate of 14.6% and 13.8%, respectively. Nearly 10%; from the cumulative year-on-year comparison of market shares, all systems rose, with the German, Japanese, and Korean systems rising significantly.

The third: export active exports may be one of the few highlights of local brands. According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Corporation, the export data of automobile manufacturers exported 489,900 units in the first half of the year, an increase of 28% year-on-year. In the two months of May and June, the exports exceeded 100,000 vehicles, and in April, May and June, they hit record highs for three consecutive months. From January to May, the cumulative number of auto exports was 352,800, an increase of 18.4% over the same period last year. The export value was 5.019 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 38.17%. Among them, the number of cars exported was 157,600, an increase of 36.72% year-on-year; the number of trucks exported was 12,7220,000, an increase of 12.79% year-on-year; and the number of passenger car exports was 41,800, an increase of 24.06% year-on-year. From January to May, the above-mentioned three major categories of vehicles exported a total of 326,600 vehicles, accounting for 92.31% of the total vehicle exports.

Fourth: Economic Benefit Indicators Continue to Grow According to the statistics of the China National Automobile Association, the key economic indicators of key enterprises (groups) in the automotive industry from January to May show that the total industrial output value and operating income of the 17 key enterprises (groups) increased by 7.2% year-on-year, respectively. 5.1%, an increase of 3.4 and 1.8 percentage points from January to April, respectively, and total profits and taxes increased by 16.2% year-on-year. The growth rate of major indicators increased month by month.

It should be pointed out that, on the one hand, the economic operation quality of key enterprises has improved, mainly because the growth rate of total profits and taxes is higher than the growth rate of operating income during the same period, and the company’s investment income is showing rapid growth. The company’s total asset contribution rate and cost-cost profit margin The labor productivity of all employees was higher than that of the same period of last year. On the other hand, the production and operation of key enterprises faced some difficulties. At the end of May, the accounts receivable of key enterprises (groups) of the automobile industry were 132.531 billion yuan, and the growth rate was 20.7%; the financing costs of enterprises increased, and interest expenses increased exponentially; The increase in short-term corporate borrowings has reached 50%, which also indicates that there are certain difficulties in the turnover of the company's capital; in addition, the company's labor costs have grown too fast, with a year-on-year increase of more than 20%.

According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total output value of auto industry enterprises above designated size in the industry from January to May increased by 12%, which was in a good development range.

Views on the touch:

Judging from the published news, new models of all levels to be listed in the second half of the year will have higher quality, and good products will be the core of the market. The new car offensive will inevitably stimulate the growth of the auto market to a certain extent.

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